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Runner Dies In Chicago Marathon: What Are The Chances?

October 10, 2011 8:13 am 3 comments

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A 35-year-old veteran marathoner fell to the ground and died yesterday, just 500 yards from the finish line of the Chicago Marathon. The runner, William Caviness, was a North Carolina firefighter who was reported to be in good health. The cause of his death has not been determined. According to the Chicago Tribune, yesterday’s death was the sixth since 1998, which averages out to one death for every two races. Is that disturbing? SportsGeezer readers know that the New York Times puts the risk of death in a marathon at 0.8 per 100,000 runners, a number that looks positively salubrious when compared to the risk of death from triathlons–1.5 per 100,000. But then, 13 of the 14 deaths in triathlons from 2006 to 2008 took place during the swim legs, and there is no swim leg in marathons. So what’s up?  The actual risk of running a marathon, like the actual risk of anything, depends on which study you choose to believe. There are three big ones to choose from, and they have all been conveniently summarized by Runner’s World:

The Twin Cities Study is three-decade study at the Twin Cities and Marine Corps Marathons, which cites 7 heart-attack deaths among 525,700 total runners, a risk of 1 death per 75,100 runners.
The London Study found 8 heart-attack deaths among 712,000 total runners in the London Marathon,  a risk of 1 death per 89,000 marathoners.
The Toronto Study found 26 heart-attack deaths among 3,292,000 American runners who competed in 750 different marathons over the past 30 years. That’s a risk of 1 death per 126,000 runners.

Runner’s World kindly points out that the risk of dying in car accident in the next year is 1 in 6,535.

3 Comments

  • Dave
    October 11, 2011
    7:07 am

    Deaths in a car accident is a completely irrelevant fact that has nothing to do with the topic.

    Reply
  • Peter
    October 11, 2011
    12:23 pm

    @Dave–a little harsh and judgemental. I found the statistic interesting and I bet one could arrive at the conclusion that people die more frequently driving than running. Now why is another question.

    Reply
  • David W
    October 11, 2011
    4:02 pm

    Not irrelevant but also not that interesting. The 1 in 6,535 per year needs to be adjusted to an “apples to apples” time frame to make it more comparable to risk of death in marathon. So, how likely is it to die in a car crash given that the total amount of time spent in the car is 4 hours?

    Reply

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