Gosh, this is confusing. Just a few days ago Lancet reported on a study suggesting that people with a low body mass index had a higher risk of death
from heart disease than those with normal BMI, and that overweight people had better survival
rates and fewer heart problems than those with a normal BMI. Now comes this piece in the Washington Post, and this one in the New York Times, reporting on two studies indicating, as the Post puts it, that just a few extra pounds can take years off of your life. The Post reports that one 10-year study of more than 500,000 U.S. adults found that those who
were just moderately overweight in their fifties were 20 percent to 40
percent more likely to die in the next decade, and another study involving
more than 1 million Korean adults produced similar results. Both are being published in this week’s
New England Journal of Medicine.
So what was all that talk in Lancet about the uselessness of BMI? Geezer is a bit lost, here. The Times reports that, as with most such studies, the fatness and thinness of the participants
in the two new studies was specified by their body mass index.
Health, fitness and lifestyle tips for people over 50 who still like to play hard
Sunday, June 1, 2025
Don’t be tyrannized by headlines. This is a great example of “Last week they said this, and now they’re saying this…!” Set aside the reflex for a while.
I’ll backtrack a little on my saying the BMI is “completely useless.” I do think that is so for individuals. The BMI is only useful for gathering statistics. As others have said, waist-to-hip or true bodyfat measures (not the calipers) are more useful for individuals to know where they stand (if they need anything more than a mirror, really). High BMI will of course, if the sample is big enough, have a high correlation with high bodyfat and a low level of fitness. That’s why they use it – administrative convenience; all they need is the height and the weight. It’s just that in a sample of one (as in judging yourself), it can be way off.
Look again at your summary: 20 to 40 percent more likely to die in their sixties. That means 80 to 60 percent are NOT. It’s still bad news, but it explains, at least to me, the difference between the two studies. They had difference aims, different methodologies, and are talking about different things. Right off the bat, they were only sampling from people already labeled “overweight.”
I’ll confess all I have to go on for this is your posting. Let me know if there’s something I missed, and I’ll do more homework.